CoinShares says only 10,200 BTC face real quantum risk, pushing back on ‘overblown’ estimates

Digital asset manager CoinShares published a report arguing that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin has been significantly overstated, framing it as a foreseeable engineering challenge rather than an urgent crisis. The report, led by Christopher Bendiksen, specifically challenges higher estimates, such as those from Chaincode Labs, by narrowing the focus to legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses where public keys are permanently visible. CoinShares estimates that while 1.6 million BTC (about 8% of supply) are in these addresses, only approximately 10,200 BTC are in large enough UTXOs to cause 'appreciable market disruption' if compromised. The firm dismissed imminent threats by noting that current quantum computers are vastly underpowered, requiring millions of qubits to break current cryptography, far exceeding existing capacity. Furthermore, CoinShares opposes burning vulnerable coins via a soft fork, citing property rights violations, and advises a gradual transition to quantum-resistant formats over premature implementation. For institutional investors, the firm concludes that quantum risks are contained with an extended timeline for resolution.

(Source：The Block)