Polymarket odds for UK PM Keir Starmer’s 2026 exit rise amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal

The crypto-powered prediction platform Polymarket has seen over $2 million traded on a contract betting on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's potential exit by specific 2026 deadlines. Traders currently assign about a 41% probability of him leaving by the end of June and 65% by year-end, an increase from previous days. This surge in trading activity coincides with intensified political pressure on Starmer stemming from the controversy surrounding documents linked to Peter Mandelson, whose past association with Jeffrey Epstein has resurfaced, and Starmer's reversed decision to appoint him as US ambassador. Experts note that such prediction markets aggregate crowdsourced expectations and reflect reactions to uncertainty, rather than serving as a definitive political judgment. Meanwhile, prediction markets face an evolving regulatory landscape in the U.S. and other jurisdictions, with platforms like Polymarket facing scrutiny from state authorities.

(Source：The Block)