Bitcoin’s ‘Buy-the-Dip’ Narrative Faces Tough Questions as Another 25% Risk Builds

Bitcoin's recent bounce after dropping near $60,000 has revived the 'buy-the-dip' sentiment, but technical and on-chain data suggest this optimism is risky. The price action is forming a bear flag pattern on the 4-hour chart, which suggests a potential 25% drop toward the $48,000–$49,000 zone if support breaks. Compounding this technical warning, leverage is increasing again as traders open new long positions, a behavior that often precedes major liquidations. Furthermore, spot demand, indicated by falling exchange supply, suggests short-term holding, but this is contrasted by long-term holders (LTHs) who have significantly increased their net selling since January, indicating a lack of conviction from stable investors.

The LTH realized price, representing the average acquisition cost for long-term investors, sits near $40,260 and acts as a crucial support level. A sustained drop below this point could trigger capitulation. Key downside price levels are identified: $53,350 as initial support, followed by the $48,800 bear flag target, and ultimately the $40,260 realized price zone. For the bullish narrative to regain credibility, Bitcoin needs to sustainably reclaim $69,510. Until structural weakness is resolved, the current rally is vulnerable to sharp reversals.

(Source：BeInCrypto)