XRP Price Flashes a Potential Bottom? Yet History Warns Against Early Optimism
Despite a recent bounce from $1.11 to $1.30, historical data and on-chain metrics suggest XRP's selling pressure is not fully exhausted, warning against premature optimism.Summary
XRP price has shown signs of stabilization, rebounding toward $1.30 after breaking down from its long-term falling channel and briefly dipping below its realized price of $1.47. However, historical analysis suggests that such breakdowns often lead to prolonged consolidation rather than immediate recovery, citing the 2022-2024 period where XRP hugged its realized price for over two years before a major rally.
On-chain indicators support caution: the current discount to the realized price (18%-25%) is less severe than the 46% discount seen in mid-2022, implying full capitulation may not have occurred. Furthermore, Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is not yet at historical bottoming lows, and spent coin activity has surged by 150% since February 4, indicating ongoing distribution rather than drying up selling pressure.
Structurally, XRP remains at high risk below the broken channel and realized price. The key downside test remains near $0.93, aligning with channel projections. A true recovery requires reclaiming $1.47, stabilizing NUPL, and seeing a sustained drop in coin movement activity.
(Source：BeInCrypto)