MicroStrategy Falls 22% as Bitcoin Losses Mount — Why a Rebound Case Still Exists

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock has declined nearly 22% over the last month, closely mirroring Bitcoin's 23% fall, resulting in over $3.5 billion in unrealized losses on its BTC treasury. This weakness has prompted some analysts to slash price targets significantly. However, technical indicators suggest a rebound case remains viable: the stock is trading within a falling wedge pattern, suggesting weakening selling pressure. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is trending higher despite the price drop, indicating that large investors are accumulating shares (bullish divergence), even as retail traders remain hesitant, as shown by a declining Money Flow Index (MFI).

For a technical recovery, MSTR must reclaim the $140 resistance level, which aligns with the 20-day EMA and the upper wedge boundary. A successful breakout could target $189, aligning with analyst targets and Fibonacci levels, with a full wedge projection reaching $225 to $230. Conversely, failure to hold $140 increases downside risk toward $109, particularly if Bitcoin continues to weaken.

(Source：BeInCrypto)