Bitcoin flashes critical $40k warning, signaling another 42% drop before the new bull run can start

Despite Bitcoin recently falling below $70,000, long-term holder (LTH) metrics suggest the market has not yet reached capitulation levels necessary for a durable bottom. Key indicators like the adjusted LTH MVRV ratio remain above 1.0, meaning LTHs are still profitable on average, and LTH SOPR is above 1, indicating selling into profit rather than loss. The LTH Loss Risk Metric is around 37%, far from the mid-50s to 60s seen at prior cycle lows. The $40,000–$50,000 range is significant because it approximates the LTH realized price (cost basis), which acts as a major stress test. If Bitcoin continues to drop, reaching this zone would signal that the strongest hands are becoming uncomfortable, potentially marking the true capitulation phase needed for the next bull run. However, if ETF flows provide a consistent bid, the market might build a bottom over time without such a deep washout.

(Source：CryptoSlate)