Stifel predicts bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.
Stifel analysts forecast a potential Bitcoin crash to $38,000 by analyzing a linear trend connecting past major market bottoms.Summary
Stifel analysts have issued a bearish forecast, predicting that Bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000. This prediction is based on drawing a straight line across the low points of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010 (which saw declines of 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022). The team, led by Barry B. Bannister, noted that Bitcoin is currently down 41% from its peak of over $126,000 in October.
To explain this shift, Stifel used an analogy to "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," suggesting Bitcoin is now "fraying." Historically, Bitcoin strengthened as the dollar weakened due to its fixed supply, but since 2025, this relationship has reversed; Bitcoin now falls when the dollar index drops. Furthermore, Bitcoin is closely tracking the Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, making it vulnerable to hawkish Federal Reserve tones, which could lead to financial tightening and further pressure on valuations.
(Source：CoinDesk)