Polymarket Prices In a $70K February for Bitcoin
Prediction market traders on Polymarket are repricing Bitcoin expectations, seeing $70,000 as the likely February floor amid a recent selloff.Summary
Following a brief dip below $72,000, Bitcoin's recent selloff has caused traders on the Polymarket prediction platform to significantly adjust their expectations. For February, the $70,000 price point has surged to a 74% probability, becoming the most heavily traded target, while expectations for higher prices like $85,000 have collapsed. The implied range for February is now $65,000 to $85,000.
Longer-term contracts for 2026 show that while a $100,000 price point still holds a slim majority probability (55%), this conviction is weakening, with traders focusing more on downside protection, evidenced by the high probability assigned to the $65,000 contract for 2026.
The selloff driving these shifts is attributed to converging factors including geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps, a hawkish Federal Reserve nomination, and severe technical damage resulting in over $5.4 billion in liquidations since late January. Furthermore, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net capital outflows, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged into "Extreme Fear."
(Source：BeInCrypto)