‘This time is different’: Bitcoin drop revives four-year cycle fears, but K33 says another 80% decline is unlikely

Bitcoin's recent sell-off has sparked concerns that the market is reverting to its familiar four-year cycle pattern, mirroring deep drawdowns seen in 2018 and 2022, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde. Although Lunde previously dismissed the rigid cycle theory, he notes unsettling similarities driven by market psychology, where long-term holders trim gains and new capital hesitates. However, Lunde maintains that "this time is different," asserting that an 80% peak-to-trough drawdown, typical of past cycles, is unlikely because of stronger institutional adoption, regulated product inflows, and an easing rate environment, unlike the forced deleveraging events of 2022. Furthermore, several bottom-hunting signals, including extreme spot trading volume and negative derivatives metrics, are flashing. Lunde identifies $74,000 as critical support, suggesting current prices are attractive entry points for long-term investors unless this support breaks.

(Source：The Block)