This onchain metric has identified the Bitcoin bottom every cycle
CoinDesk
The convergence of Bitcoin supply in profit and supply in loss has historically marked major market bottoms.Summary
A battle-tested on-chain indicator, the BTC supply in profit versus loss metric, gauges the balance between wallets holding paper profits and those underwater. Past data indicates that when these two supplies converge, bear markets tend to bottom, signaling capitulation and long-term buying opportunities. Currently, 11.1 million BTC is in profit while 8.9 million BTC is in loss, suggesting a potential convergence soon, similar to bottoms seen in 2022, 2018-19, 2020, and 2015. This metric provides insight into market-wide positioning as spot prices move above or below aggregate cost bases.
(Source：CoinDesk)