One Bitcoin Chart Correctly Predicts the 5% Bounce — But 3 Metrics Now Question It

Bitcoin recently experienced a nearly 5% rebound, testing the $76,980 zone, which was technically signaled by a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI), mirroring a previous pattern. However, three on-chain and market structure metrics now cast doubt on the sustainability of this bounce. First, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows strong sell walls near $76,990 and $84,640, where holders are likely exiting near break-even, capping the rally. Second, Bitcoin exchange reserves have been rising, indicating coins are moving back to exchanges for potential selling rather than long-term accumulation. Third, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, suggesting many holders are selling at a loss, signaling low conviction. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index is trending below its signal line, showing institutional players are not increasing exposure. For a sustained recovery, Bitcoin needs to decisively close above resistance levels, especially $84,640.

(Source：BeInCrypto)