Bernstein sees Robinhood offsetting downside as analysts map out crypto-driven bear case scenarios

Analysts at Bernstein suggest that Robinhood (HOOD) possesses mechanisms to mitigate potential losses stemming from a prolonged cryptocurrency slowdown, even while modeling various bear case scenarios linked to retail trading and digital asset cycles. The stock's recent pullback has brought its valuation closer to an attractive range, according to the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. Crypto trading currently constitutes about 21% of Robinhood's total revenue.

Bernstein outlined three downside scenarios: one where Bitcoin stays subdued near $60,000 for two years, leading to a potential share price of $46-$61; a second where Bitcoin recovers in late 2026, suggesting a price range of $70-$88; and a most bearish case where both crypto and equity options volumes decline 50%, resulting in a share price target of $24-$36.

Despite these risks, Bernstein noted that Robinhood's diversified business mix—including equity trading, prediction markets, and banking services—could cushion weaker crypto activity, as non-trading revenue now accounts for 43% of total revenue. The firm reiterated its 'outperform' rating with a $160 price target, advising investors to look past short-term crypto volatility.

(Source：The Block)