Why a 45% ADA Price Discount and Reversal Hope Couldn’t Unite Cardano Whales
Despite a 45% price discount and bullish divergence, Cardano whales remain divided and cautious due to structural risks and weak sentiment.Summary
Cardano's ADA price has fallen nearly 45% since early December, hitting a deep discount near $0.26, which suggests a buying zone, and technical indicators show a bullish divergence (price making lower lows while RSI makes higher lows). However, large holders, or whales, are not uniting to buy. On-chain data reveals fragmented behavior: the largest wallets slightly increased holdings, mid-tier whales reduced theirs, and smaller whale groups increased theirs slightly, indicating a lack of strong conviction.
This caution is compounded by weak market sentiment, evidenced by Cardano's social dominance falling to a multi-month low, suggesting fading narrative momentum. While retail investors are slowly accumulating (seen via exchange outflows), this modest buying is insufficient without broader interest. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index is weak, signaling that experienced traders are not yet positioning for a rebound.
Structurally, ADA remains within a falling channel. A breakdown below the critical $0.268 level could trigger a 29% drop toward $0.188. Until ADA reclaims resistance at $0.319 and ideally breaks above $0.376 to exit the channel, whales will likely remain defensive, overriding the early reversal signals.
(Source：BeInCrypto)