Bernstein sees ‘short-term crypto bear cycle’ reversing in 2026, with bitcoin bottoming in the $60K range

Analysts at Bernstein believe the current crypto market downturn is a short-term bear cycle expected to reverse in 2026, forecasting that Bitcoin will bottom out around its previous cycle highs of approximately $60,000 in the first half of the year before establishing a higher base. This view contrasts with Bitcoin's recent underperformance relative to gold, whose market cap share of global reserves is rising due to central bank buying. Despite this, Bernstein views the last two years as an "institutional cycle" for Bitcoin, evidenced by the growth of spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, differentiating it from previous retail-driven cycles. They also suggest potential U.S. policy shifts, such as the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, could treat Bitcoin more seriously as a reserve asset. Institutional participation remains resilient, with ETF outflows being small and corporate holders continuing to accumulate, supporting the firm's belief that this weakness is a late-stage correction, paving the way for what could be Bitcoin's "most consequential cycle."

(Source：The Block)