Can Cardano (ADA) Price Beat Weak February History With a 90% Breakout Setup?

Cardano (ADA) price is at a critical juncture entering February, contrasting its historically weak performance in this month (median -9.50%) with improving technical indicators. On the two-day chart, ADA is forming a falling wedge pattern since October, which projects a potential 90% upside move upon a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline. This technical hope is supported by a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low, indicating weakening selling pressure.

However, underlying demand remains unconvincing. While January saw net buying, the inflows lacked conviction compared to previous peaks, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below zero, suggesting overall capital inflows are weak. The potential catalyst for a breakout lies in derivatives positioning, where short leverage ($166.7M) nearly doubles long leverage ($89M), creating vulnerability for short sellers to be squeezed if the price rises.

Key price levels dictate the outcome: a break above $0.374 pressures shorts, $0.437 could unwind significant leverage, and a two-day close above $0.543 (the wedge boundary) would confirm the breakout and potentially activate the 90% projection. Conversely, a close below $0.329 would invalidate the bullish structure and align ADA with its poor historical February median.

(Source：BeInCrypto)