US Shutdown Odds at 75% — How Hard Will Bitcoin Be Hit?
The US government faces a 75% chance of a partial shutdown, but the impact on Bitcoin is expected to be less severe than last year's full shutdown.Summary
The US federal government is facing a high probability (75% according to Polymarket) of a partial shutdown by January 31, stemming from a dispute over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer opposing funding until ICE is overhauled. However, this scenario is expected to be less disruptive than the 43-day full shutdown in October 2025 because six of the twelve spending bills have already passed, and DHS has $178 billion in reserve funding. Analysts note that the previous full shutdown drained significant liquidity by swelling the Treasury General Account (TGA) to $1 trillion, which would be less pronounced this time. Historically, 60% of shutdown crises result in last-minute deals. While a market analyst who previously predicted a major Bitcoin correction based on a full shutdown warned of a 30-40% drop, the current partial shutdown scenario suggests a smaller liquidity drain. Bitcoin is currently trading steadily despite uncertainty and recent ETF outflows.
(Source：BeInCrypto)