Bitcoin Faces Fresh Test as US Shutdown Risk Looms on January 30

Bitcoin is approaching a critical macro event as US lawmakers struggle to avert a federal government shutdown by the January 30 deadline, entering this period under pressure following a failed January rally. Historically, Bitcoin has not acted as a reliable hedge during shutdowns, typically amplifying existing market trends rather than reversing them; in three of the last four shutdowns, Bitcoin declined or extended downtrends. The renewed risk stems from stalled negotiations over FY2026 appropriations, particularly regarding Department of Homeland Security funding. Furthermore, on-chain data suggests underlying stress, with major US-based miners sharply curtailing production due to winter storms, and Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) data showing a rise in realized losses, indicating de-risking behavior. If a shutdown occurs, Bitcoin is likely to react as a risk asset with a short-term volatility spike biased to the downside, as current market structure and weak demand signals do not support a sustained rally based on shutdown headlines alone.

(Source：BeInCrypto)