The dollar stays king until 2046 crushing Bitcoin dreams with $13 trillion of IMF data

An analysis using IMF data and other financial metrics suggests that the US dollar will maintain its status as the world's global reserve currency until approximately 2046, crushing near-term dreams of Bitcoin achieving reserve-currency primacy. The model considers binding constraints like official mandates, collateral usage (dominated by U.S. Treasurys), and invoicing conventions, which create strong self-reinforcing habits. While Bitcoin is making progress as a limited reserve asset, achieving primacy—where it is used for invoicing, settlement, and collateral—requires overcoming significant hurdles, including volatility compression, regulatory standardization, and a fundamental shift in established macro-financial practices. Current trends, such as central banks favoring gold diversification and the development of tokenized systems that reinforce incumbent currency usage, suggest that the dollar's dominance, anchored by its massive share in reserves (around 56-58%) and FX transactions (88%), will persist for decades.

(Source：CryptoSlate)