Can XRP HODLer Conviction Beat Profit Booking and the 18% Price Breakdown Risk?

XRP price is showing a bearish structure, potentially forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart, with the neckline at $1.80; a break below this level projects an 18% decline toward $1.46. This downside risk is supported by negative capital flows, indicated by the falling Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and significant net outflows from XRP ETFs on January 20th. Furthermore, short-term holders (those holding for one week to one month) have aggressively sold off over 50% of their supply since January 8th, capping any rebound attempts, which is also reflected in increased token inflows to exchanges signaling profit-taking. Conversely, long-term holders (HODLers) have steadily accumulated XRP, acting as a stabilizing force. However, the article concludes that while HODLer conviction provides support, it may only delay the breakdown unless ETF inflows strengthen or speculative selling subsides. Key price levels are $1.80 for the downside risk and $2.02 for an initial upside invalidation.

(Source：BeInCrypto)