Monero’s 44% Breakdown Risk Aligns With Its Historically Red February — Possible Repeat?

Monero (XMR) has seen significant gains recently, up 57% over three months and 17% in January, but its price has corrected about 36% in the last week from its peak near $799. This pullback occurs as a bearish rising wedge pattern forms, which suggests a potential 44% downside move if the lower boundary fails. This technical setup is concerning because February has historically been a weak month for XMR, often seeing declines of 8-16% following strong January performance. Furthermore, momentum indicators confirm selling pressure: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bearish divergence, the price has slipped below the 20-day EMA, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates capital outflows. The critical support level to watch is $479, near the wedge's lower boundary; a daily close below this could trigger the 44% drop toward $360 and $318. Conversely, a sustained move above $591 would invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce the breakdown risk.

(Source：BeInCrypto)