Crypto Traders are Quietly Stepping Back From Prediction Markets
High-conviction crypto trading activity on Polymarket has steadily declined since early January, indicating a risk-off shift among active traders.Summary
On-chain analysis of Polymarket shows that high-conviction crypto trading activity, specifically from wallets actively placing orders (makers), has cooled significantly since peaking in late December and early January. Daily active crypto makers fell from highs of 40,000–45,000 wallets after January 9th, dropping toward the low-20,000s, a trend confirmed by Bitcoin-only market activity.
Although overall prediction market user numbers remained relatively high, the composition shifted, with maker participation in crypto markets declining. This suggests that high-conviction liquidity providers are stepping back first, a pattern seen before broader user interest wanes in DeFi markets. The data implies that crypto traders have not abandoned prediction markets entirely, but fewer are willing to commit capital and take directional risk, signaling a quiet risk-off sentiment shift.
(Source：BeInCrypto)