Bitcoin is in the blast radius after Japan’s bond market hit a terrifying 30-year breaking point

Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant shift as long-term yields, such as the 40-year bond yield exceeding 4%, signal the end of an era of ultra-low interest rates. This change is critical because Japan is a major global funding hub, and its cheap money policies shaped worldwide markets. When this anchor lifts, global markets adjust. The stress is evident in weak long-bond auction demand and rising 30-year yields. This macro shift affects Bitcoin because higher long-term rates raise the hurdle for all risky assets. Furthermore, rising Japanese yields can trigger the unwinding of the yen carry trade, forcing leveraged positions to liquidate, often hitting the most liquid risk assets first, including Bitcoin. The article outlines three scenarios: orderly normalization, a global duration tantrum driven by auction stress, or a policy response calming the market. Ultimately, Bitcoin's upside potential is capped if Japanese policy keeps global financial conditions tighter than expected, as the cryptocurrency remains downstream of macro funding conditions.

(Source：CryptoSlate)