Bitcoin Faces Possible Collapse in 7 to 11 Years, Warns Cyber Capital Founder

Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) faces collapse within the next 7 to 11 years, citing fundamental vulnerabilities in its economic security model rather than quantum computing risks. The core issue is the declining security budget following each halving, which halves miner rewards. Bons argues that maintaining security requires unrealistic exponential price growth or permanently high transaction fees, neither of which is sustainable.

He contends that miner revenue, not hashrate, is the true measure of security, and declining revenue lowers the cost of 51% attacks, making them economically rational for double-spending. Furthermore, he warns of potential "bank-run" scenarios where network congestion during panic events traps users due to slow transaction processing. This congestion risk is compounded by the two-week difficulty adjustment, which could trigger a "death spiral" if price crashes cause mass miner shutdowns, slowing the chain further.

Bons concludes Bitcoin faces an unavoidable dilemma: either increase the 21 million coin supply, undermining its value and causing a chain split, or tolerate a weakening security model. He believes the most likely outcome is that both scenarios occur simultaneously within the predicted timeframe, exacerbated by governance constraints that prevent timely protocol changes.

(Source：BeInCrypto)