Kraken sees 2026 crypto markets shifting from hype to structure as macro forces reshape bitcoin cycle

Kraken's Global Economist, Thomas Perfumo, suggests that the 2026 crypto market adjustment will manifest more in market structure and plumbing than in price, as macro uncertainty interacts with a Bitcoin cycle increasingly influenced by institutional flows, particularly U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite significant net spot demand from these vehicles in 2025, market performance lagged due to long-term holders supplying inventory, resulting in markets absorbing large inflows without the typical reflexive upside. Macro factors like modest growth expectations and sticky inflation are seen as key constraints. Structural pillars for 2026 also include stablecoin liquidity hitting highs and potential U.S. regulatory momentum. Beyond Bitcoin, Kraken and Standard Chartered analysts point to tokenization and DeFi token economics as future liquidity drivers, suggesting 2026 will be less a traditional crypto cycle and more a macro-driven stress test where market structure is paramount.

(Source：The Block)