Prediction markets see over 65% odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader being ousted in 2026
Crypto Briefing
Prediction markets now estimate a 65% chance that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will leave office by the end of 2026.Summary
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, are showing rising probabilities, now exceeding 65%, that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will step down or be removed by the end of 2026. This surge in betting odds reflects escalating mass protests and a severe economic crisis in Iran, characterized by 45% inflation and the unaffordability of basic goods. Khamenei, who has ruled for over 36 years, holds ultimate authority over the nation's affairs. The geopolitical situation is further complicated by warnings from US President Donald Trump, who threatened military action if protesters are killed and proposed tariffs on countries trading with Iran.
(Source：Crypto Briefing)