Bitcoin Bull Market Starts With a 4.5% Move? History and Charts Finally Align
Bitcoin's price is near a rare historical trigger: a 4.5% move could flip its yearly performance positive, potentially signaling a bull market start.Summary
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, currently sitting just below a rare historical signal that occurred before the 2020 bull run. This signal involves Bitcoin's 1-year price change flipping from negative to positive, which requires only a roughly 4.5% price increase from its current level. This potential move aligns with a bullish technical pattern, the cup and handle formation, where the breakout distance is also estimated to be in the 4-5% range.
Supporting the bullish case are short-term indicators: BTC has reclaimed and is holding above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and on-chain data shows exchange inflows—a proxy for selling intent—have plummeted by over 95% to a six-month low, suggesting selling pressure has dried up.
Furthermore, derivatives positioning shows short liquidation exposure ($4.10 billion) is significantly higher than long exposure ($2.17 billion), meaning a price rise could trigger forced short covering, adding buying momentum. Key price levels are defined: a daily close above $94,880 would confirm the cup and handle breakout, targeting $99,810 and $106,340, while support rests at $89,230.
(Source：BeInCrypto)