Cardano Stalls at Breakout Point: Holder Shifts Now Weaken The 50% Rally Hope
Cardano's price is stalling near a breakout point, as shifts in holder behavior suggest weakening conviction despite supportive technical indicators.Summary
Cardano (ADA) price is currently slipping after failing a breakout attempt, though it remains broadly flat over the past week, holding a bullish falling wedge pattern since November.
Technical momentum, measured by the Money Flow Index (MFI), suggests underlying dip buying activity. However, on-chain data reveals a concerning divergence: long-term holders (365-day to 2-year cohort) significantly increased selling activity, while short-term holders (30-day to 60-day cohort) sharply reduced selling. This suggests speculative short-term capital is replacing patient, long-term capital, making the current support fragile.
Derivatives data shows a strong bullish skew with long liquidation leverage significantly higher than short leverage, increasing downside risk if crowded long positions unwind. For the bullish case to revive, ADA needs a daily close above $0.437 to target a potential 49% upside move within the wedge. Failure to hold $0.351 support would confirm that recent stability was distribution, not accumulation.
(Source：BeInCrypto)