Iran Faces Regime Pressure: Polymarket Odds on Khamenei’s Ouster Hit 56%
Polymarket odds for Ayatollah Khamenei's removal as Supreme Leader by year-end have surged to 56% amid internal unrest and external pressure.Summary
Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces, prediction markets are reflecting increased risk for Iran's leadership. The probability on Polymarket that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be removed as Supreme Leader by the end of 2026 has risen to 56%, up significantly in recent days. This surge is fueled by widespread national protests, which HRANA reports span 27 provinces, and escalating threats from former President Trump, who warned Iran would "pay hell" if protesters are harmed. While the odds suggest prolonged instability rather than immediate collapse, the article notes that Iran differs from Venezuela due to its robust regional proxy networks and military capabilities. Nevertheless, the 56% probability represents a significant market belief in potential regime change.
(Source：BeInCrypto)