MSTR Sees Dip Buying Amid MSCI Reprieve — Can This ‘Strategy’ Help Avoid a 13% Dip?
MSTR stock rebounded after an MSCI reprieve, but cautious dip buying is countered by ongoing large capital outflows, suggesting downside risk remains.Summary
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock has risen about 13% since early January following the easing of fears regarding its MSCI index exclusion and optimism about future S&P inclusion, fueled by Michael Saylor's confidence. Technical indicators show that dip buying has returned, as evidenced by the Money Flow Index (MFI) breaking its descending trendline, suggesting investors are buying pullbacks.
However, conviction remains cautious. The MFI has not reached levels indicating aggressive accumulation, and MSTR's modest correlation with Bitcoin (around 0.21) means BTC strength may not guarantee upside. More concerning is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which continues to trend lower despite the price rebound, indicating that large capital is still exiting the stock while smaller buyers step in. This divergence suggests distribution rather than accumulation.
This tension between cautious dip buying and persistent large capital outflows creates vulnerability. If MSTR fails to reclaim key resistance levels like $184 and $198, it risks sliding toward $139, a potential 13% drop. Until large capital confirms accumulation, the current rebound is fragile.
(Source：BeInCrypto)