This Bitcoin Price Level Could Separate a Bear Market From a Bull Run
Bitcoin's transition from a bear to a bull market hinges on reclaiming the cost basis of coins last moved 6 to 12 months ago, near $100,000.Summary
Bitcoin has shown early strength in 2026, climbing 6.54% and briefly surpassing $95,000, driven by new-year allocations, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical events like the US strike on Venezuela, and strong ETF inflows.
Analyst Crypto Dan identified a critical on-chain level near $100,000—the cost basis of coins held for 6 to 12 months—as the key determinant for a trend reversal. Remaining below this level suggests bearish conditions persist, while reclaiming it would signal a structural shift toward a bull run.
Other analysts, like Ted Pillows, suggest Bitcoin is testing its 2025 yearly open, with a few daily closes above this zone potentially leading to a move toward $100,000, though a failure could see a drop to $90,000-$91,000 support. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors, such as potential easing of energy prices if US access to Venezuelan reserves occurs, could encourage capital rotation into Bitcoin.
(Source：BeInCrypto)