BTC Ends 2025 Down: Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?
Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than it started, marking the first time a post-halving year resulted in a loss, potentially signaling the end of the traditional four-year cycle.Summary
Bitcoin concluded 2025 trading down over 30% from its all-time high, marking the first instance where the year following a halving ended with a price decline, breaking the historical four-year cycle pattern seen after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. Analysts like Vivek Sen declared the four-year cycle "Officially dead," suggesting that the market has matured due to the influx of institutional players, ETFs, and corporate balance sheets, causing BTC to trade based on macro factors like liquidity, rates, regulation, and geopolitics rather than just the halving schedule. While some executives believe the cycle is over, others, like Markus Thielen of 10x Research, argue the cycle remains intact but is evolving, noting that supply is increasingly locked and miners have more financing options, making price dynamics less automatic.
(Source：Cointelegraph)