Prediction markets explode in 2025: Inside the Kalshi-Polymarket duopoly and challengers

Prediction markets became a mainstream financial force in 2025, driven by bets across sports, economics, and science, following a breakout moment during the 2024 U.S. election. The market is currently dominated by a duopoly—Kalshi and Polymarket—which generated over $44 billion in trading volume this year, bolstered by Kalshi's regulatory victory and major partnerships. Experts anticipate further acceleration in 2026, viewing these markets as essential infrastructure that may replace traditional polling as the primary "truth signal." However, challengers are emerging; Crypto.com partnered with Fanatics, Gemini received approval for its platform Gemini Titan, and DraftKings launched a standalone prediction markets app. Experts suggest these new entrants are shifting competition from regulatory capture to distribution power by embedding markets into super-apps. Despite growth, challenges remain, including regulatory uncertainty regarding illegal gambling classifications in some states and the critical need for trust and transparency to differentiate new platforms from the established leaders.

(Source：The Block)