Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run was ‘forward-loaded.’ Then it collapsed.

Bitcoin's highly anticipated 2025 bull run peaked prematurely in October at over $126,200 before crashing 30% and spending the rest of the year trading sideways, far below initial forecasts. Experts attribute this fragility to a fundamental shift: Bitcoin transitioned from a fringe, retail-driven asset to one integrated into the institutional macro complex. This change meant BTC began trading more on liquidity, positioning, and macroeconomic factors, such as cautious Federal Reserve policy, rather than ideology. The October flash crash was described as a liquidity event caused by macro stress and crowded positioning, exposing how 'forward-loaded' the cycle had become. While this institutionalization ties Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets, experts see it as a positive, albeit slower, path to future growth, driven by structural forces like institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, suggesting new highs could come in 2026, outside the traditional halving cycle.

(Source：CoinDesk)