Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Over — Or Is It?

Analysts are debating whether Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, traditionally driven by halving events leading to a peak 18 months later followed by a bear market, is still valid. Some argue it is broken due to sustained institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, which has lessened the expected post-peak crash and volatility. Experts like Nick Ruck, Grayscale, and Standard Chartered predict extended bull markets into 2026, suggesting the cycle theory is obsolete.

Conversely, other analysts maintain the cycle is intact, pointing to Bitcoin entering a bear market in late 2025, consistent with historical patterns. Some suggest that if the cycle is deviating, it is merely "leveling up" or stretching, rather than breaking entirely. Furthermore, some selling pressure is attributed to long-term holders anticipating the traditional post-halving bear market, even as macro conditions and euphoria are absent.

(Source：Cointelegraph)