Bitcoin analyst warns of “biggest financial mistake of the decade” for those still using this common theory

Analyst Plan C, creator of the 'Bitcoin Quantile Model,' cautions that assuming the current Bitcoin cycle will exactly mirror previous bull markets could be "one of the biggest financial mistakes of the decade." This warning comes as Bitcoin trades around $87,661 while business-cycle gauges, like the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (which showed contraction at 48.2 in November), remain weak, contrasting with sustained demand for hard assets like gold.

Plan C's Quantile Model offers a statistical perspective, placing the current price near the 30th quantile, below the median, despite dollar highs. The model provides distribution waypoints rather than fixed targets, suggesting potential 3-month bands from $80,000 (15th quantile) to $207,000 (95th quantile), and 1-year bands from $103,000 to $253,000.

The analysis frames three forward paths based on the interplay between the PMI, Bitcoin's liquidity sensitivity, and its performance relative to gold (BTC-gold ratio). A reflation rebound would see PMI improve alongside Bitcoin moving toward the model's median. An easing-into-weakness regime would see liquidity support Bitcoin between the 15th and 50th quantiles while the PMI stays weak. A deeper contraction would favor gold, increasing the chance of Bitcoin mapping toward lower quantile bands. The upcoming December ISM release in early January will be a key checkpoint.

(Source：CryptoSlate)