Why Luke Gromen Is Fading Bitcoin but Still Bullish on Debasement
Luke Gromen is reducing short-term Bitcoin exposure due to technical weakness while maintaining his long-term bullish view on currency debasement.Summary
Global macro analyst Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, maintains his core thesis that governments with high debt will rely on inflation and currency debasement to manage their burdens. However, he has become cautious about Bitcoin (BTC) in the short term, suggesting a possible move toward $40,000 by 2026, arguing that gold and some equities currently express the debasement theme better.
Gromen cites three practical warning signs for trimming BTC risk: Bitcoin lagging gold (as measured by the BTC-to-gold ratio), breaks below key moving averages indicating trend damage, and growing market sentiment headwinds from discussions around quantum risk.
To track his process mechanically, Gromen suggests monitoring the BTC-to-gold ratio, using a trend filter like the 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA), and observing persistent ETF flows. He frames this as tactical risk control—fading Bitcoin without abandoning the core debasement belief—by splitting thinking into 'core' (long-term thesis) and 'tactical' (short-term positioning based on relative performance).
(Source：Cointelegraph)