From Trump trades to Musk tweets and NFL prop bets, a record year for prediction markets sets up a pivotal 2026

Prediction markets, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, achieved their biggest year on record in 2025, attracting massive investment and media attention, leading to multi-billion dollar valuations. This success sets up a pivotal test in 2026, particularly around the U.S. midterm elections, to prove their value as scalable forecasting tools, despite skepticism over revenue generation and volume accuracy. Major brands like CNN, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and the UFC have partnered with these platforms, and large financial players like ICE and Sequoia have invested heavily. Furthermore, major crypto platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase are entering the space, with Coinbase even acquiring a prediction market startup and suing states to assert CFTC jurisdiction over these markets. While sports betting, including NFL prop bets, is a growth area, volume is largely driven by non-sports categories. Controversial 'mention markets,' such as those based on Elon Musk's tweets or CEO statements, raise concerns about potential manipulation, despite currently representing small volumes.

(Source：The Block)