Chinese Crypto Twitter Reads Santa Rally as a Litmus Test for 2026

Key opinion leaders on Chinese Crypto Twitter are treating the 2025 Santa Rally as a critical signal for 2026, viewing it as more than just seasonal noise. Analyst Phyrex suggests a successful rally confirms investor willingness to allocate to risk assets, setting a positive emotional foundation for the next year; conversely, a failure signals lingering risk aversion. Michael Chao noted the historical strength of the rally, citing the S&P 500's 75% success rate since 1950.

However, caution remains due to macro headwinds, including concerns over the Bank of Japan's rate hike and the Federal Reserve's less dovish-than-expected rate cut path. Cryptojiejie also pointed to low global trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum, labeling current conditions as "garbage time." Phyrex summarized that if the market cannot rally despite seasonal tailwinds and recovering liquidity, the pressure from the high-rate environment is likely overwhelming.

For Phyrex, this rally serves as a preview for Q1 2026 expectations, suggesting that if risk assets fail to gain ground under ideal conditions, deeper economic issues may be at play. This intense focus on global markets is partly due to recent domestic restrictions, as Chinese regulators issued comprehensive warnings against activities like RWA tokenization and stablecoins, leaving local investors watching from the sidelines.

(Source：BeInCrypto)