CryptoQuant says bear market has started, sees bitcoin downside risk to $70,000
CryptoQuant asserts a bear market has begun due to slowing Bitcoin demand, projecting downside risk to $70,000.Summary
Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant claims a crypto bear market has already started, citing a decisive slowdown in Bitcoin demand growth since early October 2025, following major demand waves from the ETF launch and other factors. Based on this, the firm sees downside risk for Bitcoin toward $70,000, with a potential deeper decline to $56,000, which aligns with the realized price and represents the smallest historical drawdown. Head of research Julio Moreno suggested $70,000 could be reached in three to six months, while $56,000 is a longer-term scenario for the second half of 2026. CryptoQuant noted that demand has weakened, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs becoming net sellers in Q4 2025, and derivatives data showing falling funding rates, indicating reduced risk appetite. The firm emphasizes that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is driven by demand cycles, not halvings.
(Source：The Block)