JPMorgan reiterates it doesn’t see a trillion-dollar stablecoin market by 2028. Here’s why

JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, maintain their view that the stablecoin market will not reach a trillion dollars by 2028, forecasting growth in line with the broader crypto market cap, potentially reaching $500 billion to $600 billion.

This projection is based on the observation that current stablecoin growth, which saw a $100 billion expansion this year driven primarily by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), is mainly fueled by internal crypto ecosystem activity, such as derivatives trading and DeFi lending, rather than widespread adoption for payments.

Furthermore, the analysts argue that increased payment adoption will raise stablecoin velocity, reducing the necessary outstanding stock. They also point to competition from tokenized bank deposits, like JPMorgan's own JPM Coin, and central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects, which aim to offer regulated digital payment alternatives, potentially limiting the long-term share of privately issued stablecoins in settlement flows.

(Source：The Block)