US CPI in Focus as Investors Weigh Fed’s January Rate Outlook
Investors are focused on the upcoming US November CPI data to gauge its influence on the Federal Reserve's January interest rate decision.Summary
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which investors will scrutinize to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, especially since the report lacks monthly prints due to a government shutdown.
Forecasts suggest the annual CPI will rise to 3.1% (or 3.2% according to TD Securities, driven by energy prices), while core CPI is expected to hold steady around 3.0%. This data comes after a mixed jobs report, which Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted did not change the policy outlook.
Market expectations currently price in a nearly 20% chance of a Fed rate cut in January. A headline CPI print of 3.3% or higher could solidify a Fed hold and boost the US Dollar (USD), whereas a print of 2.8% or lower might encourage expectations for a January rate cut, potentially weakening the USD.
(Source：BeInCrypto)