Bitcoin just flashed a rare capitulation signal that historically triggers a violent rally to $180,000 in 90 days
A rare Bitcoin capitulation signal, indicated by the 14-day RSI falling below 30, historically precedes a significant rally, potentially reaching $180,000 in 90 days.Summary
Bitcoin's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 in mid-November, a rare capitulation signal. An analysis by Julien Bittel suggests that historically, this event has preceded an average rally trajectory leading to a price target near $180,000 approximately 90 days later, implying a 105% gain from the recent $89,000 level. This projection is based on an event-study average of the last five such occurrences. The article notes that Bitcoin experienced a 36% drawdown from its October high near $126,223 to a low around $80,697 in late November, fitting within projected cycle drawdown bands. For the rally to materialize, Bitcoin must reclaim key resistance levels, notably $106,400, which has acted as a pivot point. Furthermore, the sustainability of the bounce is contingent on ETF flows, which have recently stalled after record outflows from IBIT, and derivatives positioning, which currently suggests range-bound trading between $86,000 and $110,000. The analysis also touches on macro factors, linking cycle timing to U.S. debt refinancing dynamics and Federal Reserve liquidity management, suggesting that improving liquidity conditions support the potential for a higher move.
(Source：CryptoSlate)