Robinhood (HOOD) looks better placed than Coinbase (COIN) for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says
Mizuho suggests Robinhood has greater revenue upside from prediction markets because its users fund them with fresh capital, unlike Coinbase users who may sell existing crypto.Summary
Mizuho analysts believe Robinhood (HOOD) is better positioned than Coinbase (COIN) to benefit from prediction markets because a survey indicated Robinhood users are more likely to fund these portfolios with new money, whereas Coinbase users often plan to fund trades by selling existing crypto or assets.
The survey of over 230 users found that both platforms' users are significantly more likely to engage in prediction markets, focusing on economic and political events. However, 50% of Robinhood respondents planned to use fresh money, compared to only 12% selling traditional portfolios and 10% selling crypto. Coinbase users were split, with 37% citing selling crypto and 37% citing new money.
This funding difference leads Mizuho to raise 2026–2027 revenue estimates for Robinhood by 6%–7%, maintaining an outperform rating. Conversely, due to concerns that prediction markets might cannibalize existing crypto trading revenue, Mizuho cut Coinbase's price target from $320 to $280 and reiterated a neutral rating, noting they have not yet factored in any prediction-market upside for COIN.
(Source：CoinDesk)