Michael Saylor says quantum will “harden” Bitcoin, but he’s ignoring the 1.7 million coins already at risk

Michael Saylor optimistically stated that quantum computing will "harden" Bitcoin by forcing network upgrades, leading to stronger security and reduced supply as active coins migrate and lost coins remain frozen. However, the technical reality is more complex. Bitcoin's primary quantum vulnerability lies in its ECDSA/Schnorr digital signatures, which Shor's algorithm could break once fault-tolerant quantum computers arrive (estimated at least a decade away). While NIST has finalized post-quantum signature standards (like ML-DSA/SPHINCS+), integrating them requires a difficult, non-mandated soft fork, potentially reducing block capacity and increasing node/transaction costs.

The article highlights that Saylor overlooks the immediate danger to coins whose public keys are already exposed on-chain. This includes early P2PK outputs and modern Taproot (P2TR) outputs. Estimates suggest around 1.7 million BTC in vulnerable P2PK outputs, plus hundreds of thousands more in Taproot outputs, are exposed and could be stolen by an attacker with a capable quantum machine, contradicting the idea that all "lost coins stay frozen."

Ultimately, whether Bitcoin emerges stronger depends less on the physics timeline and more on governance—the ability of developers, miners, and holders to coordinate an expensive, politically fraught migration before quantum capabilities materialize. Saylor's confidence is a bet on successful coordination, not just cryptography.

(Source：CryptoSlate)