Bitwise Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Predicts Bitcoin New Highs in 2026

Asset manager Bitwise released a report arguing that Bitcoin is set to break its historical four-year market cycle, forecasting new all-time highs in 2026. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougen cited three key forecasts: the end of the cycle, continued volatility compression, and declining correlation with traditional stock markets. Bitwise believes the forces driving past cycles, like the halving impact and interest rate cycles, are weaker, while institutional capital flows, accelerated by spot Bitcoin ETFs and broader adoption from major wealth platforms, will push prices higher. Furthermore, the firm notes that Bitcoin's volatility has been steadily declining, even falling below Nvidia's stock volatility in 2025, and expects its correlation with the S&P 500 to decrease as crypto-specific catalysts drive the asset independently. Bitwise concludes that 2026 will offer investors a favorable environment with strong returns, lower volatility, and reduced correlation with traditional assets.

(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)