Bitcoin price (BTC) analysis: What 26% underperformance to S&P 500 this quarter means for next year
Bitcoin's significant Q4 underperformance against the S&P 500 suggests potential rebalancing inflows favoring BTC in early January.Summary
Bitcoin was trading flat around $87,500, holding modest 24-hour gains, while crypto stocks also saw bounces. According to Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, Bitcoin's massive 26% underperformance relative to the S&P 500 during the fourth quarter suggests that asset managers, who maintain mandated BTC allocation targets, may rebalance their portfolios near year-end. This could lead to excess inflows for Bitcoin in the final trading days of the year and into early January, mirroring historical patterns where Q1 underperformance preceded Q2 gains. Despite the price stabilization, market participants remain hesitant, evidenced by low derivatives activity on the CME, neutral funding rates, and declining spot trading volumes, indicating a lack of short-term directional conviction.
(Source：CoinDesk)