Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
Bitwise predicts Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is ending due to weaker halving effects and increased institutional adoption.Summary
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan advises clients to expect a different Bitcoin market in 2026, suggesting the asset is maturing as institutional interest grows. Bitwise argues that Bitcoin's long-standing four-year cycle is breaking down because the impact of the halving is diminishing, interest rates are expected to fall, and leverage has been reduced following major liquidations in late 2025. Hougan anticipates that the combination of the halving, spot ETF inflows, and easier brokerage access will drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs next year, avoiding a typical post-halving downturn. Furthermore, Bitcoin is becoming less volatile—even less volatile than Nvidia shares in 2025—and its correlation with U.S. stocks is expected to decrease as crypto-specific factors drive growth. These trends position 2026 as a breakout year for Bitcoin as a portfolio asset, potentially attracting tens of billions in new institutional capital.
(Source：CoinDesk)