Markets Rethink Rate Bets as Miran Challenges Inflation Narrative Before November CPI Release
Fed Governor Miran argues underlying inflation is near 2%, driven by statistical quirks, not excess demand, ahead of the CPI release.Summary
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is challenging the market consensus that inflation remains stubbornly high, suggesting that underlying inflation is already close to the Fed's 2% target. He contends that much of the measured overshoot is due to statistical distortions, particularly in shelter inflation captured by the lagging PCE index, and artificially boosted non-housing service fees like portfolio management. Miran also downplayed the impact of US tariffs on consumer prices. His views, which suggest policy might be overly restrictive, come just before the release of the November CPI data, which investors are watching closely. This narrative is somewhat supported by Bloomberg Economics' Anna Wong, who sees forward-looking indicators pointing to renewed disinflation, suggesting markets might be underpricing future rate cuts.
(Source：BeInCrypto)