Fidelity Flags Short-Term Crypto Risks, Discusses Bitcoin’s Historic 4-Year Cycle 

Fidelity's new outlook advises caution for investors seeking short-term crypto gains but suggests long-term holders may still find entry points, reflecting crypto's shift toward being a strategic asset held by governments and institutions. This shift is highlighted by the U.S. establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The report questions whether Bitcoin's historical four-year boom-and-bust cycle, tied to halvings, still applies due to this new structural demand from sovereign and corporate adoption. While some speculate about a 'supercycle,' Fidelity Digital Assets' Chris Kuiper suggests human behavior still drives markets, making it too early to definitively say the cycle is over. He notes that government adoption, like Kyrgyzstan's and potential Brazilian reserves, adds complexity, and corporate treasuries now hold over one million Bitcoin. Ultimately, for long-term holders, Kuiper argues Bitcoin's fixed supply remains key, provided adoption continues, even if short-term timing is difficult.

(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)