Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that Bitcoin's long-debated four-year cycle is still intact but its drivers have shifted from the halving to political factors and liquidity conditions. Thielen noted that historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned more closely with US presidential election cycles than with halving dates. He suggests investors should now watch political catalysts and monetary policy shifts. This perspective comes as Bitcoin struggles post-Fed rate cuts, with institutional caution and tightening liquidity limiting upside momentum, suggesting a consolidation phase ahead. This contrasts with views from figures like Arthur Hayes, who previously argued the cycle is dead, asserting that global liquidity, not arbitrary timelines, has always driven Bitcoin cycles.

(Source：Cointelegraph)